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Will Draghi Deliver or More about Modalities ?

Published 6 September, 2012, 02:23, CEST+1 | By the trader

A few ealry market thoughts by Marc Chandler of Marc to market.

What promises to be an eventful period, and one in which the implied volatility, either in VIX or currencies seem low, has already had a couple of surprises.  The session began with soft Australian employment numbers.  Rather than grow 5k jobs, it lost 8.8k.  These were concentrated in part-time jobs, but the full-time positions gained only 600 and the July figure was cut by 1.6k.
That said, the Aussie, which had made new multi-week lows yesterday failed to extend its losses, which precipitated a short-covering bounce.  Some of its gains were linked to speculation that China will ease policy imminently.  Given the economic and financial weakness, many participants have been surprised by the lack of response yet by the PBOC.
The other surprise today has been the Sweden’s Riksbank’s decision to cut rates 25 bp to 1.25%.   While most observers recognized the possibility, most expected it to wait for greater clarification.  However, there have been soft PMI readings and the domestic economy has under-performed both the government and central bank expectations, while the krona is been stronger than expected.
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Imagine government debt at less than 40 percent of GDP-Welcome to Sweden

Published 5 January, 2012, 10:42, CEST+1 | By the trader

While majority of countries within Europe have been under severe stress, Sweden has been the country managing the financial crisis most professionally. Having experienced hardship in the early 90′s, Sweden has learnt many lessons, and has been working on restoring a sound Economy. While Europe has been under attack, Sweden has been flourishing. At times, Sweden is somewhat boring, but could teach the “hot” Med countries a lesson or two.

So, what is the Swedish receipt? From Bloomberg;

The value of monetary independence is the first and most important Swedish lesson. Sweden stayed out of the euro system when the currency was introduced in 1999, and in the past several years, the government has used this monetary flexibility to the full.

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