With economic & political problems spreading rapidly around the world and – importantly –an accompanying negative price trend, the mood in the speculative markets has darkened rather suddenly (and – for us at least – rather amusingly). Just two short months ago, the S&P 500 had enjoyed a 37% gain over 10 months, and – with the consensus’ seeming tendency to extrapolate the recent past into the future - sentiment towards stocks, commodities, non-government debt & ‘risk’ currencies had become fiercely bullish. By that time, the contempt bestowed upon the steadfast bears was onerous; in short, being bearish was well and truly out-of-style.So, as ever, the market proceeded in the least appetising direction so that the greatest pain could be imparted upon the greatest number of speculators. After about a month’s worth of technical divergences, the major US equity indices and commodities topped out on May 2ndand have subsequently proceeded lower ever since (i.e. with lower short-term lows & lower short-term highs).
Guest post by Gresham’s Law.