Black Swans and things that make you go hmmm
Great year end reading by Things that make you go hmmm.
Well what a year that was. It’s hard to believe that, after a tumultuous year like 2011, the stakes could have been
raised yet further in 2012, but raised they were.
So many momentous moves took place in the past twelve months it was hard to keep pace with ev- erything. Fortunately, way back in December 2011, I didn’t put together my own list of ‘Black Swan Possibilities For 2012’ that so many people choose to publish at the end of a year, so history will be unable to judge the success or failure of my own thoughts which I diligently kept to myself – after all, who in their right mind would want to listen to a list of potentially unexpected events that I predicted could possibly happen in 2012?
Predicting is, to use the vernacular, a mug’s game and, if you ever find yourself being foolish enough to share your thoughts about what MAY happen with others, then take the advice of Marc Faber:
“…when you make a prediction, never make a prediction about timing”
Muslim Brotherhood and your portfolio
Guest Post by BB Finance.
Let us take a break from the daily up down dance of the stock markets. We are so glued to the five minute charts that we are losing the sight of the bigger picture.
I have been writing for a while that I am not expecting the bottom to fall off the market anytime soon. Not in 2011, not even in 2012. Why such optimism in the face of such bad environment? When it is not sure if Europe and Euro will exist at all in its current form? When recession is almost certain in Europe and China is preparing to cushion its landing. The answer can be found in the coordinated action of the seven CBs (Central Bank) last week. Like in Japan, the CBs of the western world will keep their TBTF Banks alive with continuous injection of liquidity. It does not matter that these banks are all Zombie banks, dead men walking.
Make no mistake. The system is broken beyond imagination. Crooks are running the show.
Bloomberg reports Paulson Gave Hedge Funds Advance Word and yet we have seen no move from the O administration to punish the guilty. And why should they. You cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hound. This is crony capitalism at best and utterly corrupt and sleazy plutocracy at worst. Their only chance of survival is to continue the status quo. And rising stock prices at any cost guarantees them that. What surprises me is that why we have seen no public outcry against Paulson yet. Are we so dead?
Black Gold on the move
Markets are still trading relatively dull, with a risk on preference (that should change soon). Volumes are depressed, as many traders and fund managers spend the days before Xmas eating long lunches. We have had a Eurozone focus for the past months, but what will be the new focus?
We seldomly hear about the oil price nowadays. With the increasing tension in the Middle East, oil has recently been nudging higher. Could the situation in Syria and Iran get out of hand, and oil starts breaking to the upside? Remember, the oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, have been putting a lot of investments into spending, in order to keep the Arab Spring riots from developing further. These countries do not want to see a lower oil price, as people need to be motivated from further riots.
That sure is not what the central planners hope for, but on the other hand, they will probably fix that problem easily….
MENA Region “reviving”
Great news out of Italy on Sunday evening. They will tax boats longer than 10 m. While majority still focus on stupidity out of Europe, the tensions in the Middle East are escalating.
IEAE has come out with reports claiming Iran is on the path of developing nuclear weapons. While the US and its allies have already pushed for new harsh sanctions against Iran, China, Russia and Turkey are urging for cautiousness. Israel is also shouting out loud. and could set off a nasty situation developing in the Middle East. Is a new power shift developing in the region? Must see video below;
MENA spreading to US?
Earlier this spring, we wrote extensively on the increasingly polarization of the US society. With Occupy Wall Street, we have seen the green shoots of people fed up with the system. The Melting Pot has just started boiling, and expect more to come. Further great reading After the Empire by the French historian Emmanuel Todd. Below Hudson on implication of Occupy Wall Street.
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