Another must read “Hmmm” report, courtesy Grant Williams.
One way or another, we are no more than weeks away from the first de- fault in the history of the Euro.
Yes, I know the Greeks have promised to give the Troika what they want in the way of cuts and expanded austerity. Yes I know we have been promised that we will have a ‘solution’ by last week February 15 Monday, but let’s get real for a second here, shall we?
The situation breaks down like this:
The Greeks have been told that, in order to receive the €130 billion €145 billion bailout they so desperately need, they must agree to sweeping new cuts and promise to implement them.
Not implement them. Promise to implement them.
Trading has been focused on the Italian situation lately. Let’s not forget, Greece is not fixed, and needs to refinance many billions this year. Money Greece does not have. Great WSJ article on the Greek mess getting attention today.
Negotiators for banks and governments are working to complete a promised debt restructuring for Greece that will slice in half what the nation owes its private bondholders.
But the deal sets up other governments in the euro zone to bear any additional burden if—many analysts say when—Greece needs more help to get out of its deep fiscal rut.
The concerns about additional costs have made some European capitals wary of consummating the deal, said people familiar with the talks, and are among the reasons they have dragged on for months.