Eurodollar Update – Hunting The Black Swan
Guest Post by Jessie.
As you know eurodollars are US dollars held anywhere overseas by banks as a foreign currency liability or asset.
Eurodollars were formerly tracked by the Federal Reserve and were included in their M3 figures. In fact, the reason that the Fed stopped issuing its M3 is because it stopped tracking eurodollars. The other components remain.
But the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, continues to track the dispersion and concentration of global currencies in their reporting banks in their quarterly reports. And this is the source I have been using to derive estimates in the magnitude and changes in dollars held overseas.
For more on M3 and eurodollars read here.
Even a casual glance at the data shows that there was a trend change in the growth of eurodollars in the mid 1990′s. This trend is something I have identified as one potential source of a US dollar crisis if the currency begins to fall in value or lose its appeal US in an uncontrolled manner.
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