As the SPX is pushing the 1400 level, ECRI has just published why they keep a negatuive view on the economy. The economy might be dislocated from the markets for a long time, but as the ECRI call has been widely discussed on many sites, here is their own the explanation of why they keep the bearish call.
Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice.
Let’s start with the current state of the economy. A couple of weeks ago, we publicly highlighted ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index (USCI). It’s important to understand that the USCI isn’t a random concoction of data, but rather the gold standard for measuring current economic growth, as it summarizes the key coincident economic indicators used to determine the official start and end dates of U.S. recessions; namely, the broad measures of output, employment, income and sales. So when USCI growth is in a downturn (bottom line in chart), it’s an authoritative indication that overall U.S. economic growth is actually worsening, not reviving.
Apple has had a “nervous” week, in China. The Fair Labor Association, a watchdog monitoring working conditions at makers of Apple Inc. products, has uncovered “tons of issues” that need to be addressed at a Foxconn Technology Group plant in Shenzhen.
Has the company grown so powerful, they will become the victim of it’s own success? Video below.
While we focus on the Greek Mess and the unhealthy Greek Economy, we tend to forget about the US. A few economic indicators below. Guest Post by Macro Story;
The consumer has averaged 71% of total US GDP over the past six quarters.
The consumer is the economy which begs the simple question how is the US consumer doing and what if any threat do they present to future economic growth.
If you would rather not read on I will save you the trouble. The consumer is weakened, confidence is plunging and the US economy is extremely vulnerable. This is reality. It is not fear mongering. It is not spinning data to support one’s trade thesis. The data is below for your own eyes to view.
It describes anything but a healthy consumer. Just this week the US Census Bureau issued a report that highlights the rise in poverty and the fall in median household income.
Consumer confidence is now at the lows of the 2008 recession and not far from levels last seen in 1980. Below is the University Of Michigan survey yet all other confidence surveys show the same multi year lows and plunge over the summer.