Here Is What to Make of China, Now
Maybe not as important as the US elections, but still very big. China’s Communist Party gathers in Beijing to hand over power for the fifth time since 1949.
What to expect and not.
Video with Jim O’Neill below.
US Election Statistics as Fast Food
The US elections seen through hamburgers and fries. Via Spiegel.
Two German illustrators have visualized the most important facts about the US presidential election using burgers and fries, the stereotypical American meal. The playful images are packed with both calories and information. They also betray a few differences in how fast food is eaten in Europe.
All pictures click here.
If Obama Wins, Sell Your Winners
A few thoughts by Biderman.
Intrade today was taking bets at odds of 1 – 2 that Barack Obama will be relected as President of the United States. Odds of 1 to 2 means you have to bet $1 to win 50 cents. To me that means if Obama wins as seems likely, I need to start selling my big winners.
By the way, Intrade also is quoting even more certain odds that the Republicans will keep control of the House and the ditto the Democrats with the Senate. In other words gridlock will be here for at least two more years, so do not expect any major initiatives absent the miraculous.
That brings up what an Obama re election means for the so called Fiscal Cliff. The Fiscal Cliff is in essence the result of a law requiring $560 billion combined in government spending cuts and higher taxes that will reduce a $1.1 trillion budget deficit by half. To me, if Obama wins, I cannot imagine that there will not be very many if any spending cuts any time soon
A Google search says that this year’s presidential and congressional campaign spending will total around $6 billion. Six billion dollars, most of that coming from the special interest groups that benefit the most from government largesse. Do you think that those that put up the $6 billion will allow the government to cut spending? Maybe growth in spending could be cut, but certainly not current spending.
Time to Vote!
A few thoughts by PIMCO’s Bill Gross.
Continue reading
93 days. Tic tac….
With markets “impressed” with the Spanish bank stress test short term, we believe one should be focusing on the future events. The US elections is 37 days away, and the fiscal cliff another 93 days. Tic tac….We believe the market is about to shift focus to these events shortly.
The United States fiscal cliff refers to a large predicted reduction in the budget deficit[1] and a corresponding projected slowdown of the economy if specific laws are allowed to automatically expire or go into effect at the beginning of 2013.[2] These laws include tax increases due to the expiration of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 and the spending reductions (“sequestrations”) under the Budget Control Act of 2011.
Below are a few charts worth reviewing.
What To Expect From Post-Election Year Markets
Guest post by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,
There has been a lot of ink spilled about how the stock market performs during Presidential election years generally leaning to why investors should be fully invested to the hilt. The current election year, with just three months remaining, has certainly played out to historical norms with the markets advancing on expectations of continued government interventions even as economic and fundamentals deteriorate. To wit Bespoke Investment Group wrote back in July: “We have highlighted the similarities between this year and prior Presidential Election years numerous times. Most recently, in early July we noted the fact that based on the historical pattern, the S&P 500 could see a modest pullback in mid-July coinciding with the kick-off of earnings season. Sure enough, the market saw some choppiness about a week and a half ago and subsequently rebounded in the middle of last week. Holding to the historical pattern, that rebound came right at the same time that the market historically sees its summer low. If the pattern continues, the S&P 500 could be set up for a nice rally to end the Summer. Will it hold? Only time will tell, but if the historical pattern has worked so far, what’s to stop it from continuing?”
What is to stop it from continuing? That is an interesting question. Deteriorating economics, weakening earnings, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, a dead-locked debate in Congress on the“fiscal cliff” or an outbreak in the Middle East are just a few of the issues that could derail the market advance from here. However, with the Federal Reserve now injecting the financial markets with liquidity, we will just assume that the rest of this year plays out according to historical norms for the moment as I want to focus on next year?
Everybody Stay Calm – A Slight Return
Global lack of leadership, economies, markets and much more. Another must read by the Cravens Brothers.
Interviewer: “What period does this remind you of?”
Economist: ”Last year…the year before that…and the year before that.” – Bloomberg Radio
Recently, I found myself on a plane making an emergency landing, again. I have flown to and from a certain city four times in my life and had emergency landings on two of four occasions (2001 and 2012). I detailed my 2001 adventure in last year’s“Everybody Stay Calm!” The ritual: (i) get on for the ride, (ii) volatile mishap on the way up, (iii) rapid descent, (iv) get out quickly (via fun slide or boring jetway), and (v) wait for indications of what to do next. The violent “accordion-shaped” up and down moves in the commodities and equities markets the first halves of the last three years have left investors similarly “normalized” to the abnormal. This year, the Dow posted the best 1Q performance since 1998 (+8%), followed by the worst May since 1940 (-8%), followed by the best June since 1997, (+4%) – the gain for the first half of the year. Get on for the ride, volatile mishap, rapid descent, and slightly propitious exit.
This year’s odyssey revealed a lack of leadership more awe-inspiring than my first dance with death eleven years ago. Instead of one leader “losing it” (i.e., the pilot), the entire leadership “lost it” (the airline), herding 150 or so passengers around the airport for 5 hours with no explanation, handing out useless taxi vouchers, delaying the replacement flight the next morning for another 5 hours with no explanation, and finally another 2 hours “due to an equipment malfunction” on the plane we hadn’t even boarded yet. Upon hearing this first direct communication from our “leaders” in over 24 hours, two would be passengers flipped out and had to be “escorted” to the “can” by security, ostensibly to be given some literature on how to behave when “Groundhog Day” meets “The Twilight Zone” and one must live through their progeny.
Politics in America
As the World is focused on what’s going on in Europe, the US politics haven’t stopped. A great in-depth look at the current political environment in America, from the Occupy Wall Street protesters to the President’s reaction to the Republican Primary. Courtesy Omid Malekan. Must see video below.
Obama better than Bush (if that should be a comparison) and worse than Clinton
With all the negative news out of Europe, we have almost forgotten about the Elections coming up in the US. Latest from Gallup below. Obama is up for some rogue times.
Asked to compare Barack Obama with George W. Bush, Americans are more inclined to say Obama has been a better (43%) rather than a worse (34%) president, with 22% seeing no difference between the two. Obama compares much less favorably to Bill Clinton, with half saying Obama has been worse than Clinton and 12% saying better.
These results are based on a Sept. 15-18 USA Today/Gallup poll. Obama succeeded Bush as president during a down economy that is still struggling to recover. Thus, a key comparison voters will make is whether Obama is doing better than his predecessor, which would enhance his chances of re-election, or worse than Bush, which makes it less likely Americans would reward him with a second term.
It could be argued that saying Obama has been about the same as Bush is also a negative evaluation, given that Bush left office with low approval ratings and Americans generally did not judge his presidency to be very successful.
Indeed, those who say Obama has been about the same as Bush generally view Obama negatively, with 27% approving and 62% disapproving of the way Obama is handling his job as president.
Thus, in order to win re-election, Obama likely needs to convince voters he is doing a better job than his predecessor did.
Latest comments