Good piece before you consider going all in when it comes to Brazil. From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
The Latin Tiger may have overtaken France, Italy, and Britain to become the world’s fifth largest economy on some measures but it has also been relegated to 126th place by the World Bank for ‘ease of doing business’, behind much of Africa. Cyclical warning signs are flashing amber across the board.
It is far from clear whether this 195m-strong cub of the BRICs quartet has broken out of the “middle income trap” after half a century of tantalizing efforts, each dashed by events.
Has Brazil’s profile been flattered once again by a resource boom, this time juiced by exports of iron-ore and soya to China, and a property bubble of Irish proportions?
The jury is out, even if we all accept that Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva – ex-Fiat car worker turned apostle of orthodoxy – did slay inflation and establish the Banco Central do Brasil as the Bundesbank of the Americas, and if we accept that the deep-water fields of the Campos Basin will eventually turn Brazil into the world’s fourth largest oil producer. Knight Frank’s global survey shows that Brazil’s house prices rose 26pc last year, leading the world by far. The global average was 0.5pc.
Full article here.