“Since the early autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere gold has failed to make a new high. Each high has been progressively lower than the previous high, and now we’ve confirmation that the new interim low is lower than the previous low. We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.” (Gartman)
Gold is certainly a crowded trade, although the trend is intact. With so many bulls, and Paulson still big long Gold, things could get interesting….
Charts with perspective below;
Some facts on the real bear market, and the post bubble rallies in Japan. By D Short.
Earlier this month Japan’s preliminary Q3 GDP come in at 6.0%, which was a substantial gain over the previous three negative consecutive quarters. However, the global financial distress has weighed heavily on the Nikkei 225. Yesterday it hit an interim low, 79% off the all-time high at the end of 1989 and 28% off the interim high of April 2010. The index is currently only 15.7% above its historic low set on March 10, 2009, the day after the US markets hit their Financial Crisis lows.
Here is a look at the Nikkei 225 which gives an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan’s secular bear market, now in its 21st year.
Don’t forget that secular bear markets can last for a very long time. The 1907 “panic” has so far been “replicated” by the 2008 crisis (still active). The 1907 crisis lasted for a very long time. Yes, this time is different, but not everything is better now, but one thing constant is the stupidity of people. From DShort.