Temat inflation, ökade matpriser, den alltmer dominerande eliten i Usa är bekanta teman på thetrader. Nedan en kanske lite väl baissad syn på världen, men finns några läsvärda stycken. Usa jagar diverse elit i MENA regionen för att all makt, pengar etc är koncentrerat till den lilla eliten. Hur ser det ut i Usa? Vilken påverkan får matinflationen på average Joe? Bara det faktum att 15% av amerikanarna äter pga matkuponger är en oroande utveckling. Detta har bara ökat den sista tiden, alltmedan eliten via Fed, trycker SPX terminen vidare. Det kan bli svettigt om flödet skulle vända, då livkiditeten och det genuina köptrycket kan visa sig vara “falskt”? Strategerna SPX target om 1500 i år, ter sig märkligt med den senaste veckans BNP nedrevideringar, eller kan det vara så att det är Feds stödköp i marknaden som utgör målkurserna, och inte den underliggande tillväxten?

“Every 10 percent increase in global food prices equates to a 100 percent increase in anti-government protests, according to a recent report from the International Monetary Fund. Looking at recent increases in foodstuff commodities — up a total of 45 percent since the arrival of QE2 last year — it’s no wonder there are revolutions, civil wars and riots breaking out across the globe. According to the IMF, a  45-percent increase in foodstuffs should quadruple the levels of unrest, and that seems to be precisely what’s happening.

Recent chaos caused by food inflation and hunger is being heartwarmingly marketed by propagandists as democratization. Remember the French Revolution and “let them eat cake.” The causa proxima was food inflation.”

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/russ-winter/predicting-global-revolutions-civil-wars-and-riots

Artkeln nedan kanske är lite väl mörk, men 4 intressanta charts på temat wealth distribution och hur Usa även de riskerar revolter och oroligheter. Eliten har kanske blivit för girig, och riskerar därmed förlora mycket själva?

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=14483

Spanien genomför en del försäljningar av statsskuldsväxlar. Sämre mottagande rakt av;

6,12,18 månaders växlar såldes till mindre volym än avsedd volym, bid cover 1,63 mot 2,37 och 2,04 mot 3,51.

Räntorna blev 2,77 mot 2,13 (mars), och 3,36 mot 2,43(mars).

Nu till aktörerna som inte handlar efter pressreleaser, utan seriöst försöker prisa risker för diverse länder. Grekiska och Portugisiska ränta slår nya all time high. Det säger oss att en bail out är runt hörnet.

***Greece asked EU/IMF at Ecofin to restructure Debt-Greek Newspaper, citing senior IMF-sources- Reuters

Nej, nej, nej, men Ja. Det vi skrev om igår verkar redan infrias, Billiga grekiska öar coming up. http://www.thetrader.se/2011/04/17/grekland-behover-en-restructuring-imf/

…och den obligatoriska förvirra marknaden kommentaren 10 minuter senare;

***Greece denies newspaper report it asked for debt restructuring -Reuters

Algoritmerna slåss vidare i en numera pajasmarknad.

Nu när vi vet att “True Finns” är med i förarsätet, kan vi fråga oss vad som kan hända med Portugal. Fortsättning följer….

“Early results Sunday from Finland’s parliamentary elections suggest the anti-EU bailout True Finns party will hold the second-most number of seats and could even be part of a coalition government.

Such an outcome may mean the EU’s planned bailout of Portugal is vetoed by Finland, a move that would roil the euro-zone markets.

With half the votes counted the True Finns were on 19% support, and on course for 41 seats, tied with the Social Democrats and one seat less than National Coalition Party’s predicted 42-seat haul, the BBC reported.

Finland is the only euro-zone country that requires bailouts to be approved by its parliament. Strong gains by the True Finns could derail a planned rescue for Portugal.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/finnish-election-results-may-spark-euro-jitters-2011-04-17?link=MW_latest_news

mer på Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/finnish-anti-euro-party-set-for-record-support-in-election-1-.html

Rosenberg, en av det mer respektfulla finansprofilerna debatterar wall of worry.

A survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators issued on April 10 found that economists on average had downgraded their estimates for real G.D.P. growth in the United States in 2011 to 2.9 percent, down from 3.1 percent only one month earlier. At the moment, they project growth of 3.2 percent for 2012. These are low numbers for an economy rebounding from a recession. (NYT)

Kom ihåg att GS nedgraderade sina BNP siffror till 1.75% i fredags kväll. Frågan är hur SPX ska klättra till 1500 i år? Dessutom är alla de ovan nämnda tillväxttalen modesta med tanke på att vi befinner oss i en uberstark återhämtningsfas i ekonomin.

On the other hand, the consensus among Wall Street strategists is bullish: the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index will approach 1,500 within 12 months, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of price estimates for the index’s underlying components. That would be about a 14 percent increase over its current level.

The stock market’s 80 percent rise since March 2009 has been one of the greatest bull runs in history, he says, and while the American economy has its problems, it is clearly strengthening and corporate profits are rising. Yet anxiety about the American market is profound, he says, and many investors have been avoiding American stocks, pouring money into emerging market stocks and bonds instead. That makes no sense to Mr. Bernstein, a longtime bear who turned resolutely bullish in July 2009.

“It seems no one wants to believe in the stock market in the United States,” he said. “People don’t accept that the American economy may actually be strengthening. And they go for emerging markets, which are wildly overpriced. What in the world is going on here?”

Even now, he says, many American investors are disillusioned. There has been too much pain from the financial crisis, a severe bear market and lingeringrecession. Traders are unusually skittish, and, as I wrote recently, markets globally have become increasingly synchronized and volatile, with “risk on, risk off” trades overwhelming all other approaches. (NYT)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/17stra.html?_r=1&ref=business

Sevärt klipp, nu efter Levin rapporten om Goldman.

http://cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2011/04/15/exp.arena.prosecute.resign.spitzer.cnn

För de obotliga optimisterna, vidare önskningar från TEPCO. Vi har sen jordbävningen varit av uppfattningen att TEPCO bör förstatligas för att kunna städa upp skiten och kompensera bönder etc. Nyheterna från TEPCO har varit allt annat än tillförlitliga, därför är vi skeptiska till deras clean up plan. Det mer oroande är deras ekonomiska läge, och vad ett förstatligande/konkurs får för implikationer, inte minst med det stora korsägandet i Japan, keiretsu.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/us-japan-reactor-idUSTRE73G0BI20110417

JPM ser flykt till guld efter det att fastighetbubblan brustit….

China raised banks’ reserve requirements to lock up cash and limit inflation after economic growth exceeded forecasts and consumer prices rose by the most since 2008.

Reserve ratios will increase a half point from April 21, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The move, taking the requirement to 20.5 percent for the nation’s biggest lenders, came less than two weeks after the central bank boosted benchmark interest rates.

“Tightening will continue until there are signs that inflation has been effectively brought under control,” Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said before today’s announcement.

A surge in foreign-exchange reserves to $3 trillion last month and rebounding lending and money-supply growth have highlighted overheating risks in the fastest-growing major economy. Gross domestic product rose 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and inflation accelerated to 5.4 percent, the most since July 2008, the statistics bureau said April 15. (Reuters)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-17/china-raises-bank-reserve-ratio-for-fourth-time-in-2011-to-curb-inflation.html