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Daily Archives: 5 August, 2012, 06:02, CEST+1

When Algos break down

The Trader has written extensively on the Algo/HFT trading over the past year. Regulators do not understand, and the Algos are running the markets. We are not against technology, as we use it ourselves, but we are concerned on the long term implications of the markets if a respectable player like Knight can practically go under over one rogue algo going crazy. More by Felix Salmon of Reuters.

Barry Ritholtz has an excerpt from Frank Partnoy’s new bookWait, all about an HFT shop in California called UNX:

By the end of 2007, UNX was at the top of the list. The Plexus Group rankings of the leading trading firms hadn’t even mentioned UNX a year earlier. Now UNX was at the top, in nearly every relevant category…

Harrison understood that geography was causing delay: even at the speed of light, it was taking UNX’s orders a relatively long time to move across the country.

He studied UNX’s transaction speeds and noticed that it took about sixty-five milliseconds from when trades entered UNX’s computers until they were completed in New York. About half of that time was coast-to-coast travel. Closer meant faster. And faster meant better. So Harrison packed up UNX’s computers, shipped them to New York, and then turned them back on.

This is where the story gets, as Harrison put it, weird. He explains: “When we got everything set up in New York, the trades were faster, just as we expected. We saved thirty-five milliseconds by moving everything east. All of that went exactly as we planned.”

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Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis

Guest post by Marc Chandler of Marctomarket.

The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso.  The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss franc and has been range bound against sterling and the yen.
This broad pattern may be on the verge of breaking down.  The dollar is on the cusp of a break out to the down side against the euro and Swiss franc.  There is scope additional modest gains in the dollar bloc, cross rate adjustments, warn they may lag in the period ahead.  Sterling and the yen may remain range-bound, with sterling testing the upper side of its range and the yen testing the lower side of its.

Moreover, despite the sharp moves in both directions in recent days, implied (3-month) volatility has actually eased across the board.    This is consistent with the technical view suggested here and is aligned with our fundamental outlook.  The next few weeks may be relatively quiet, forcing momentum traders and trend followers to back off and enjoy a summer holiday.  September promises to be more volatile.  The price action spring ma, r coil before exploding.
However, after large moves before the weekend, follow through may be difficult to sustain at the start of the week.  A modest pullback in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, may provide an opportunity to adjust positions accordingly, rather than chase the market out of the gate.