More Stress Tests-just what the market needed
Just when everybody just finished buying the dip, Fed comes with the Kicker, another stress test of the US Banks. This is definitely not what the fragile market wanted to hear. Not that any stress tests have been creditworthy, but this will revive the uncertainty in the markets. ES futures plunging after hours…Santa Claus rally might not happen this year? Full press release from the Fed:
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday issued a final rule requiring top-tier U.S. bank holding companies with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or more to submit annual capital plans for review.
Also, the Federal Reserve launched the 2012 review, issuing instructions to the firms, including the macroeconomic and financial market scenarios the Federal Reserve is requiring institutions to use to support the stress testing used in their capital plans. As a part of the review, known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the Federal Reserve in 2012 will carry out a supervisory stress test based on the same stress scenario provided to the firms to support its analysis of the adequacy of the firms’ capital.
How good is the Role model?-Germany’s Finances Not as Sound as Believed
Merkel & Co like us to believe, Germany is the “promised” country, with finances in good shape. Well, things aren’t that good. Germany next? Spiegel reports;
The German government likes to pride itself on its solid finances and claim the country is a safe haven for investors. But Germany’s budget management is not nearly as exemplary as it would have people believe, and the national debt is way over the EU’s limit. In some respects, Italy’s finances are in much better shape.
When it comes to fiscal stability, frugality and responsible economic management, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble have only one role model: themselves.
The chancellor praises herself and her team for having “a clear compass for reducing debt,” and insists: “Getting our finances in order is good for our country.”
Window of Opportunity for Rajoy?
Rajoy won the elections in Spain over the weekend. A name not too experienced is supposed to lead the increasingly collapsing Spanish Economy. Fitch is already out “warning” Rajoy to start acting, and it better be fast. We have covered the problems of Spain for the past six months. Unfortunately, nobody has really addressed those problems, as the world has been obsessed with the Greek and Italian situation. With rates spiking, and inversion of the yield curve reaching levels not seen in fifteen years, people are acknowledging the Spanish Disease. From El Pais;
Just two days after the opposition Popular Party won an absolute majority in Sunday’s general elections, Fitch Ratings urged the incoming government to come up with new measures to tackle the public deficit.
“The government’s fresh mandate, following the victory, with an outright majority, of the Popular Party in Sunday’s parliamentary election, provides a window of opportunity,” Fitch said. “If it is to improve market expectations of its capacity to grow and reduce debt within the confines of the euro zone, it must positively surprise investors with an ambitious and radical fiscal and structural reform program.”
Rajoy has no time to waste, and Merkel is probably already losing patience. Povre Rajoy….
More below.
Fed Minutes
From the Fed’s minutes:
Financial markets were quite volatile over the period since the September FOMC meeting. Investor senti- ment was strongly influenced by prospects for Europe, as market participants remained highly attuned to de- velopments regarding possible steps to contain the fis- cal and banking problems there. Economic data releas- es that were, on balance, somewhat better than market participants expected provided some support to finan- cial markets.
Longer-term Treasury yields declined appreciably fol- lowing the release of the September FOMC statement. Investors reportedly viewed the Committee’s assess- ment of the economic outlook as more downbeat than anticipated. In addition, the announcement that the Federal Reserve would lengthen the average maturity of its portfolio by purchasing longer-term Treasury securi- ties and selling an equivalent amount of shorter-term Treasury securities reportedly contributed to the de- cline in longer-term yields on the day. Yields on cur- rent-coupon agency MBS also moved lower on the an- nouncement that the Federal Reserve would begin to reinvest principal payments on agency securities in agency MBS. Over the following weeks, movements in yields were driven by shifts in investors’ assessments of the ongoing efforts to address the European fiscal and banking situation and by somewhat stronger-than- expected U.S. economic data. On balance since the September FOMC meeting, Treasury yields on shorter- dated securities and the expected path of the federal funds rate implied by money market futures quotes were not much changed. Yields on Treasury securities with maturities beyond 10 years moved down. Meas- ures of near-term inflation compensation derived from nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities rose slightly over the intermeeting period, while similar measures of longer-term inflation compensation were about unchanged.
MF Global Revelations Keep Getting Worse
MF Global is somehow “escaping” the main stream media. This is a huge scandal and people have lost life savings due to reckless behavior. Remember, this is not happening in some small country majority of people can’t even pronounce the name of, this is happening in the US, today. Another great piece by Tavakoli.
Shortfall estimated at $1.2 billion or more (up from $600 million)
“Repo-to-Maturity” is a “Total Return Swap-to-Maturity,” a Type of Credit Derivative
Probable Shortfalls Throughout 2011
Regulators Waive Required Tests for Jon Corzine
Jon Corzine to Credit Derivatives Head: Next Time “Double Up”
JT Note: Subsequent to this report Jim Parascandola told me that he was never told to increase the size of any position, albeit his trades were profitable.
Questions About How MF Global Became a Primary Dealer
MF Global Wrote Rubber Checks for some Electronic Checks for Others
Tip-Offs for Some Customers?
CFTC’s Gary Gensler Didn’t Act
MF Global Debacle Damages a Key Global Market
Full reading below.
Biggs super bearish again
Biggs Super bullish @ 1300, dreaming of ultrashorts © 1170, “constructive” bullish again @ 1280, bearish again @ 1185. He is afraid of a market melt down, but does not want to be net short. Happy Thanks Giving from Nassau. Full video below:
News That Matters
Ft.com
Essam Sharaf, the Egyptian prime minister, submitted the resignation of his government on Monday, plunging the country deeper into crisis, reports the FT. The death toll in fighting between protesters and police has risen to 33 and thousands massed in Cairo’s Tahrir square demanding an end to military rule. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/22/757271/cairo-crisis-grows-as-cabinet-quits/
Lloyds Banking Group has been thrown into further turmoil after it emerged that a key management recruit reversed plans to join the part-nationalised bank amid uncertainty over when its chief executive will return from medical leave, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/22/757241/lloyds-hit-again-as-key-recruit-drops-out/
Austrian bank supervisors have instructed the country’s banks to limit future lending in their east European subsidiaries, a further sign of the potential knock-on effects of the eurozone crisis for economies around the world, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/22/757221/austrian-banks%e2%80%89told-to-limit-lending-to-east/
David Cameron admitted on Monday that controlling Britain’s debt was “proving harder than anyone envisaged”, shortly after receiving bleak official forecasts showing the government’s timetable for scrapping the deficit is behind schedule, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/22/757181/tackling-uk-deficit-behind-schedule/
Running the Fed
Heading the Fed is not an easy job. Try figuring out the lag effect while playing the Fed Game. Courtesy Jessie.
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