Quick facts on The Referendum
Formally the referendum is about the bail out package, negotiated last week (remember the squeeze).
In reality it is a vote on whether to stay in the Euro or not. A “no” vote would totally close Greece from refinancing it’s debt, and would cause a default and probably a goodbye to Euro.
Parliament to vote on the referendum probably later this week. If referendum is rejected, we will get new elections, as the current government would resign.
It will take several months to draft what the people are to vote about, so don’t expect any voting until next year. There might be legal issues with regards to the situation as the Greek constitution (article 44) does not permit referendums on fiscal matters.
Europe organized as always….
Spreads taking new highs
Credit Markets have been implying a slightly different reality than the Equity markets, for a long time. Spreads taking new highs. If we just could persuade China to buy more Debt from Europe….Charts by McDonough.
Chart Update
Quick early Chart update. ES futures are trading below the positive trend line we outlined a month ago. We are reaching some support levels in the 1220-1225 area, but this should only hold short term. Another small leg up, just to confuse the new bears, and then the full blown collapse?
The Panic of 1907 and 2008. Any similarities?
Don’t forget that secular bear markets can last for a very long time. The 1907 “panic” has so far been “replicated” by the 2008 crisis (still active). The 1907 crisis lasted for a very long time. Yes, this time is different, but not everything is better now, but one thing constant is the stupidity of people. From DShort.
And how long time did it take the DOW to come back, adjusted for inflation?
News That Matters
Ft.com
Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, NYT DealBook says, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/01/717731/regulators-investigating-mf-global/
Greece’s prime minister unexpectedly announced a referendum to approve a second EU bail-out deal for his austerity-hit country, less than a week after it was agreed with international creditors at a EU summit, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/01/717581/greece-calls-referendum-on-eu-bail-out-2/
China’s official purchasing managers’ index for October fell to its lowest since February 2009, Bloomberg reports. The PMI fell to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in September, the first fall in three months.http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/11/01/717611/asian-pmis-come-in-low/
When Money Dies
Money Printing and Inflation. This time is NOT different. Must see video with Mr Fergusson.
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