Some points from the Commitment of Trader’s Report. Courtesey Macro Story;
Copper: Two times a charm? For weeks I discussed the massive divergence with commercial net and copper price only to see it close with commercial net moving higher. Well this week we see a major reversal and divergence once again. I truly believe commercial net is right this time. In fact I believe they were right last time but took advantage of speculative fever and higher prices. If true copper should fall as quick as oil fell the beginning of August.
Oil (WTI): No major change in commercial net positions this week implying oil will stay somewhat rangebound. Considering oil at its lows was down 25% in two weeks perhaps it is slightly overdone and was the first commodity to get hit in the unwinding of risk.
Long Bond: Commercial net remains relatively unchanged even in the face of a major move lower in yield this past week. It will be interesting to see if yields reverse somewhat in the coming week.
US Dollar: Wow. Look at the move in non reporting (retail) dollar positions. After being clearly wrong for months it looks like retail gave up on the long USD trade which means a nasty USD rally in the near future is highly probable.
With Greece and Ireland in economic shreds, while Portugal, Spain, and perhaps even Italy head south, only one nation can save Europe from financial Armageddon: a highly reluctant Germany. The ironies—like the fact that bankers from Düsseldorf were the ultimate patsies in Wall Street’s con game—pile up quickly as Michael Lewis investigates German attitudes toward money, excrement, and the country’s Nazi past, all of which help explain its peculiar new status.
Must read article by Michael Lewis on those Germans….Welcome to It’s the Economy, Dummkopf