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Daily Archives: 22 July, 2011, 11:18, CEST+1

What role did real estate play in the crashing of the global economy?

New Documentary, Real Estate 4 Ransom,  shot over five years coming in August. Make sure to make reservations as this might be another Inside Job.

Real Estate 4 Ransom Official Trailer from Real Estate 4 Ransom on Vimeo.

HFT Algo Refresh on this zzzzzzzzzzzzz day

While the Market is trading on no volume, with zero trend and no real money interest, please refresh the HFT Algo trading world. Let’s hope HFT Algos don’t stop tradnig, or? Courtesey Omid Melakan for this old great video.

Tradeanator 2: Settlement Day from Malekanoms on Vimeo.

Fed Socialist?

Some more details on who the Fed actually bailed out….America is getting more socialist by the day it seems. From Bernie Sanders.

The first top-to-bottom audit of the Federal Reserve uncovered eye-popping new details about how the U.S. provided a whopping $16 trillion in secret loans to bail out American and foreign banks and businesses during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. An amendment by Sen. Bernie Sanders to the Wall Street reform law passed one year ago this week directed the Government Accountability Office to conduct the study. “As a result of this audit, we now know that the Federal Reserve provided more than $16 trillion in total financial assistance to some of the largest financial institutions and corporations in the United States and throughout the world,” said Sanders. “This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you’re-on-your-own individualism for everyone else.”
Among the investigation’s key findings is that the Fed unilaterally provided trillions of dollars in financial assistance to foreign banks and corporations from South Korea to Scotland, according to the GAO report. “No agency of the United States government should be allowed to bailout a foreign bank or corporation without the direct approval of Congress and the president,” Sanders said.

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Oslo bombings

Daily Gold

Europe is saved, but why are Gold and Silver prices up today? The Greek problems are just being kicked down the road, while we expect miracles to happen. Metals are up, because people slowly seem to realize we live in a fiat currency system. Some points from Gold core,

Along with stocks, European bonds are being bought with gusto. Yields in Greece have plummeted while yields in Ireland and Portugal have fallen sharply. German bunds have been sold and the yield on the German 10 year has risen from 2.5% to 2.88% since last Tuesday (July 12th).

The failure to address the risk of insolvency in Greece, Portugal and Ireland means that the risk of contagion has been delayed but remains.

Real contagion risks remain as do currency risks. The dollar and the euro remain vulnerable to further debasement and depreciation.

With all eyes on Brussels, myopia has returned to markets particularly with regard to the serious fiscal and monetary challenges continuing in Washington.

Another sign of silver’s move from the fringe of hard money advocates and more risk averse investors and savers to the mainstream is seen in Citigroup technical analysis of the silver market which was picked up by Bloomberg.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. have said that if silver follows similar patterns as seen in silver’s last bull market from 1971 to 1980 than silver could double to over $100 per ounce.

“If the final rally in the last bull market repeated then we can expect $100 over the long term,” Tom Fitzpatrick and two other analysts wrote. “While the high so far this year was at the same level as the peak in January 1980, we are not convinced that the long-term trend is over yet.”

Most institutional players and Wall Street banks have been bearish on silver and have called the silver market wrong for years.

Some have very large concentrated short positions which have been investigated by the CFTC and were likely “talking their book.”

Therefore, it is very unusual to see such a bullish call from a major bank and suggests that at least some of the major banks see the writing on the wall regarding much higher silver prices. They are likely positioning themselves accordingly.

This means that the banks with concentrated short positions, such as JP Morgan, may soon see their silver positions incur even greater losses and we may see the much heralded short squeeze propel silver to much higher prices.

Our long held target for silver of $140 per ounce, the real inflation adjusted high from 1980, remains viable and becomes more likely by the day.

The Real Crisis

While the World is cheering the great Greek bailout, once again, some of the African countries are experiencing the worst drought in 60 years. Yes, financial markets are cruel, they don’t have feelings, nor do they care about anything but their bonuses, while the politicians are busy expanding their powers. Shame on you, from Obama to Merkel and Sarkozy. Der Spiegel reports;

Aid workers have long been warning that a famine was approaching in East Africa. Now that it is here, they are struggling to feed millions of victims of what is said to be the worst drought since 1950. The situation is likely to get even worse.

For a long time they hoped that the rain would begin falling after all. Only after their last animal wasted away and died did Batulo Mahmud give up and head out with her family. For four days and four nights Batulo marched southwards together with her husband and five children through Somalia’s arid steppe. They had nothing to eat and only a little water with them.
Full article, click here.
Chart, Der Spiegel.

Spain, Next Focus of European Attention

Although, too early, next focus after Greece has been saved, will be Spain. People are cheerful of  Greece getting another lifeline, but let’s not forget, Spain is the next Elephant in the room. The financing rates for Spain have been soaring, and will become a major problem later this year. Unemployment levels in Spain, the troubled property sector and the “hidden” debt, should make investors jittery later this year. For the time being, enjoy the relief rally, as we kick the can down the road….

Chart, tradingeconomics

El Pais reports;

Spain was obliged on Thursday to pay the highest rates in 14 years to sell government bonds at an auction held just before the start of a euro-zone summit on a second bailout package for Greece.

The highest borrowing costs Spain has seen at a debt tender since 1997 — before the euro came into existence — was the price the Treasury had to pay in order to meet its targets for the auction. It sold 1.807 billion euros in 10-year bonds, compared with demand of 3.429 billion euros, at a marginal rate of 5.921 percent, up from 5.409 percent at the previous auction for 10-year paper held in May. It sold a further 814 million euros in 15-year bonds at a cut-off rate of 6.218 percent, up from 6.043 percent in June.

“The result was mixed, edging on positive,” Reuters quoted Corstal Consors economist Estefanía Ponte as saying. “The bid to cover ratio fell in both cases, but the 10-year bond was placed at a good yield for the Treasury, given the market context.”

News That Matters

All you need to know. For all news, continue below;

Ft.com
Two former News of the World executives have challenged James Murdoch’s testimony to members of parliament, the FT reports, alleging that he had been informed of a critical e-mail relating to phone http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/22/631036/james-murdochs-testimony-challenged/

US president Barack Obama and Republican House speaker John Boehner were on Thursday still struggling to overcome resistance from their respective parties to a debt ceiling deal, the NYT says. The latest talks http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/22/631016/democrats-testy-on-latest-debt-talks/

EU’s internal market commissioner says the EU proposal to harmonise capital rules will still allow the UK to ringfence its retail banks. Michel Barnier told the FT that his proposal would split into two jurisdictions so that the UK, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/22/630981/uk-ringfencing-could-go-ahead-says-barnier/

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Why Small Businesses Were Hit Harder by the Recent Recession

So what happened to those small firms during the recession. The businesses that hire people, and don’t get bonuses per default, despite being wrong about their predictions. Fed’s view on why small businesses still suffer.

Although both large and small businesses felt the sting of job losses during the 2007-09 downturn, small firms experienced disproportionate declines. A study of the recession’s employment effect on small firms suggests that poor sales and economic uncertainty were the main reasons for their weak performance and sluggish recovery—problems that affected large firms too, but to a lesser degree. Although a tightened credit supply constrained some small firms, weak consumer demand for the firms’ products and services was a more pressing factor, reducing revenues and dampening new investment spending.

Full Fed Report.