Charts Update-SPX, Dow, NDX, DAX, Mib, Ibex
Market has been trading in a totally Manic fashion during the last weeks. From big sell offs, to melt ups, and sell offs again. Some European markets are in clear downtrend moves, while other markets such as the SPX, Dow etc are bouncing inside the trading range. Although we are long term rather bearish, we see majority of markets approaching some short term support levels soon. Some charts below. Dax, Italy, Spain, Dow, Spx and Nasdaq;
Dax hitting support levels shortly. 200 day moving average and some long term trends coinciding.
Italy retesting important levels in a volatile way…
Spain has broken down and is suggesting lower levels in mid term.
Dow, positive trend still intact, and trading resilient, still….
SPX trading within the range. We might be forming a big tripple top though. Support levels some lower.
Nasdaq still trading relatively strong.
News of the World phone-hacking whistleblower found dead
Say no more….
The Guardian reports,
Sean Hoare, the former News of the World showbiz reporter who was the first named journalist to allege Andy Coulson was aware of phone hacking by his staff, has been found dead, the Guardian has learned.
Hoare, who worked on the Sun and the News of the World with Coulson before being dismissed for drink and drugs problems, is said to have been found dead at his Watford home.
Hertfordshire police would not confirm his identity, but the force said in a statement: “At 10.40am today [Monday 18 July] police were called to Langley Road, Watford, following the concerns for the welfare of a man who lives at an address on the street. Upon police and ambulance arrival at a property, the body of a man was found. The man was pronounced dead at the scene shortly after.
“The death is currently being treated as unexplained, but not thought to be suspicious. Police investigations into this incident are ongoing.”
Hoare first made his claims in a New York Times investigation into the phone-hacking allegations at the News of the World.
He told the newspaper that not only did Coulson know of the phone hacking, but that he actively encouraged his staff to intercept the phone calls of celebrities in the pursuit of exclusives.
In a subsequent interview with the BBC he alleged that he was personally asked by his then-editor, Coulson, to tap into phones. In an interview with the PM programme he said Coulson’s insistence that he didn’t know about the practice was “a lie, it is simply a lie”.
Letting Bankers Walk
A couple of points on bankers, never held accountible. By Krugman;
Ever since the current economic crisis began, it has seemed that five words sum up the central principle of United States financial policy: go easy on the bankers.
This principle was on display during the final months of the Bush administration, when a huge lifeline for the banks was made available with few strings attached. It was equally on display in the early months of the Obama administration, when President Obama reneged on his campaign pledge to “change our bankruptcy laws to make it easier for families to stay in their homes.” And the principle is still operating right now, as federal officials press state attorneys general to accept a very modest settlement from banks that engaged in abusive mortgage practices.
Why the kid-gloves treatment? Money and influence no doubt play their part; Wall Street is a huge source of campaign donations, and agencies that are supposed to regulate banks often end up serving them instead. But officials have also argued at each point of the process that letting banks off the hook serves the interests of the economy as a whole.
It doesn’t. The failure to seek real mortgage relief early in the Obama administration is one reason we still have 9 percent unemployment. And right now, the arguments that officials are reportedly making for a quick, bank-friendly settlement of the mortgage-abuse scandal don’t make sense.
Daily Gold-Gold Over $1600 and Silver Over $40.30 on Risk of Systemic Collapse and Fiat Currency Crisis
From Gold Core,
Gold is trading at $1,600.84/oz, €1,141.34/oz and £996.35/oz.
Gold rose to new record nominal highs in debt laden U.S. dollars, euros and pounds today due to the growing risk of a systemic financial collapse and fiat currency crisis.
Gold rose 0.5% in U.S. dollar terms to a new nominal record high at $1,602.05 per ounce. Euro falls saw the dollar rise 0.8% against the euro and gold rise 1.4% in euro terms to EUR 1,041 per ounce.
Gold rose 0.9% in British pound terms to £996 per ounce. Gold rose 0.8% to CHF 1,309 per ounce in the ‘safe haven’ fiat currency the Swiss franc (more below).
Cross Currency Rates
European equities are lower with the FTSE down 1.1%. Asian equities were mixed with the Nikkei eking out a 0.4% gain.
Oil prices are lower despite continuing considerable geopolitical risk in North Africa and the Middle East.
Spanish, Italian and Greek bonds are under pressure with the yield on the Greek 10 year rising over 18% and Italy’s 10 year back over the 6% mark.
The second stress test is increasingly being seen as an abject failure and another futile exercise to obfuscate and deny the massive exposure of European banks.
This exposure is not just to sovereign debt, but also to loans worth in the trillions – including residential mortgages, small-business loans, corporate debt and commercial real-estate loans to individuals and institutions.
Gold in Swiss Francs – 2001 to July 2011 (in Nominal Terms, Non Inflation Adjusted Terms)
CDS Update
Some 5yr CDS ;
Italy 315
Spain 364
France 123
Germany 64
Ireland 1166
Portugal 1181
Greece 2468
Terminology versus reality
Remember Greece? From Kathimerini;
The truth is too stubborn to bend to wishful thinking. Up until recently, Prime Minister George Papandreou stated that Greece would pay off every last euro of its debt and that any from of default would be catastrophic. His statements sounded more like an incantation against the ills to come than a dependable reassurance from a statesman.
The truth is that the Greek debt has become unsustainable and will continue to be even if austerity measures are pushed through. We have constantly stressed over the past year that the only solution for Greece, the eurozone and the country’s creditors is fiscal reform in combination with a consensual restructuring that will render the debt serviceable. It is the efficacy of a debt restructuring that is important, therefore, rather than the form it will take.
With a great deal of delay, the inner sanctum of Europe is only just beginning to discuss issues which it once rejected outright. It has failed, however, to agree on a radical solution for the Greek predicament that will also safeguard the eurozone. The main cause of the rift between the parties involved in the Greek bailout is the disagreement on the distribution of the cost.
Gold Chart Update
The trader wrote about the gold set up two weeks ago in Gold set up short term bullish . Gold is setting up some potentially good entry points. The GLD ETF has been on fire and bounced on that 146 ish support level and is now approaching out resistance levels shortly. There is still some more room on the upside, but we would start taking some positions off in the short term.
News That Matters
All you need to know news. Continue below,
Low yields on US Treasuries may be sending a false signal to Washington that it is unconcerned by the prospect of default should wrangling politicians fail to raise the Federal debt ceiling, the FT says. While the consensus in the bond market is for a last-minute deal ahead of the August 2 deadline http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/18/624961/little-progress-in-us-debt-talks/
Banks that scraped through the European Union’s stress test of 90 lenders will start feeling the heat Monday from investors to beef up capital buffers, Reuters says, although a wide sell-off was not anticipated by analysts or regulators. The relatively small shortfall identified by the European Banking Authority in the results, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/18/624926/investors-eyeing-stress-tests/
The head of the ECB placed a major obstacle on the path to a new agreement on a Greek financial bail-out, the FT reports, saying the bank could not accept defaulted bonds as collateral, potentially cutting off fundng from the Greek banking system. Jean-Claude Trichet http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/18/624716/ecb-and-merkel-clash-over-greece/
UK prime minister David Cameron has cut short a trade tour of Africa, the FT reports, to escape criticism for being out of the country as the eurozone crisis deepens and the phone hacking scandal continues http://ftalphaville.ft.com/thecut/2011/07/18/624696/cameron-under-pressure-as-police-chief-quits/
Spain and Italy’s leading banks were the strongest performers in last week’s European stress tests, in a surprise result that could help relieve the funding pressure that had been building on them. The European Banking Authority, which conducted the exercise, found an aggregate capital shortfall of only €2.5bn ($3.5bn) at eight banks, prompting criticism that the tests were not tough enough, in part because they did not account for any sovereign failure even as Greece teeters on the brink of default. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6294a9f2-b098-11e0-a5a7-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1SQexfvh3
Wsj.com
Asian shares were lower Monday amid continued concerns over euro-zone sovereign debt and as U.S. debt negotiations showed little progress over the weekend. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi Composite was shed 1.0% and New Zealand’s NZX-50 lost 0.6%. Japan’s markets were closed for the Marine Day holiday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 88 points in screen trade. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303661904576452803025552210.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews
China welcomed findings by the World Trade Organization’s Appellate Body in a Chinese antidumping case against the European Union, China’s Commerce Ministry said Saturday. The Appellate Body supported China’s position on the EU’s application of antidumping tariffs to imports of certain metal fasteners from China. Both the EU and China had filed appeals after the WTO in December condemned the tariffs, handing Beijing its biggest legal victory so far at the WTO. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303795304576451621831860678.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_LEFTTopWhatNews
Stress Test Graphic
Interactive graphic of the European Stress Test published on Friday. Detailed view click FT.
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