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Monthly Archives: May 2011

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SPX vs Vix

Last time Vix was trading at these levels, market was somewhat lower….

Another good old days trading

What is wrong? We have not seen this in a while, so let us enjoy it while it lasts.

SPX down, NDX down, Vix up…..

The United States just sued Deutsche Bank AG

Here we go….

The United States sued Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), accusing the German bank and its MortgageIT Inc unit of repeatedly lying to be included in a federal program to select mortgages to be insured by the government.

In a civil complaint filed in the U.S. district court in Manhattan, the government said that defendants recklessly chose mortgages that violated program rules “in blatant disregard” of whether borrowers could make mortgage payments.

Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT profited from the resale of the mortgages, even as thousands of U.S. homeowners faced default and eviction, the complaint said.

The government said it has paid out hundreds of millions of dollars of insurance claims, and expects to pay out hundreds of millions more. Its seeks damages and penalties for violations of the federal False Claims Act.

Deutsche Bank did not immediately return a call seeking a comment. (Reuters)

Bubble winners-400 people

As thetrader has been writing extensively about during the past months, the increasing polarization of the Us society is becoming a problem long term. Just imagine, 15% of the population eat of foodstamps, while 400 persons account for 10% of ALL Capital gains tax! It doesn’t get more Capitalistic. For further insight into  inequalities within the American society, read the book by Emanuel Todd. Below some thoughts from Krugman,

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/who-benefits-from-bubbles/

Is SLV about to blow?

“As of this writing there are 364 million shares of SLV outstanding.  In the past five trading days (April 25 – 29) more than 755 million shares have been traded, and get this, more than 10 million ounces of silver were taken from the trust between the 26th and the 28th, taking available shares with them.”

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/is-the-slv-is-wired-to-blow/

Below, Silver action today, many longs puking, 42 is the first support, then let’s see.

Must read report from PIMCO

Another great piece from Bill Gross at PIMCO. He is getting rather aggressive on his view. Let’s see what Geithner thinks about this Titanic cruiser?
“Bond – and stock – investors have been sailing on the “Good Ship Lollipop” for over 30 years following the Volcker Revolution and the return of high real interest rates to investment markets. Now, however, with governments attempting to impose financial repression, bond investors should revolt. Their ship should more likely be christened the “USS Caine” in memory of a silver screen mutiny that, while traumatic, eventually returned all sailors safely to port. PIMCO advocates not so much a mutiny but a renewed vigilance on this new ship, stressing bond market “safe spread” alternatives available globally, including developing/emerging market debt at higher yields denominated in non-dollar currencies. Many of these countries have more pristine balance sheets and higher real interest rates than those currently being imposed in some developed markets subject to current and future “repression.” If AAA quality is your requirement, then Canadian or Australian bonds may also fit your horizon. Join us, along with Carmen Reinhart, in shouting “constant bearing/decreasing range!” The Treasury market is on a collision course with financial repression and it is time to adjust your rudder to starboard to get home safely.” (PIMCO)

Stratfor on the Strategic shift in Washington

Two apparently distinct facts have drawn our attention. The first and most obvious is U.S. President Barack Obama’s announcement late May 1 that Osama bin Laden had been killed. The second is Obama’s April 28 announcement that Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, will replace Leon Panetta as CIA director. Together, the events create the conditions for the U.S. president to expand his room to maneuver in the war in Afghanistan and ultimately reorient U.S. foreign-policy priorities.

We are not saying that bin Laden’s death and Petraeus’ new appointment are anything beyond coincidental. We are saying that the confluence of the two events creates politically strategic opportunities for the U.S. administration that did not exist before, the most important of which is the possibility for a dramatic shift in U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. (Stratfor)

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110503-death-bin-laden-and-strategic-shift-washington

Krugman on future Bail Out(s)

“For our current deficit is overwhelmingly the result of the 2008 financial
crisis, which devastated revenue and
increased the cost of programs like unemployment insurance. And while we managed to avoid large direct bailout costs (a fact not appreciated in public debate), we might not be lucky next time.

More and bigger crises; more and bigger bailouts; more and bigger deficits. If you like that prospect, you should love what the G.O.P. is doing to financial reform.” (NYT)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/opinion/02krugman.html

There goes TEPCO?

“Tokyo Electric Power may be asked to shoulder half of an estimated $49 billion in total compensation for damages stemming from its crippled nuclear power plant with other power firms to bear the rest, a Japanese newspaper reported on Tuesday.” (Reuters)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-tepco-liabilities-idUSTRE7421AO20110503

Inverted Black Swan-The Bin Laden trade

Somebody made a killing on Bin Laden capture yesterday.

http://http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden-and-inefficient-markets/?ref=business

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