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Daily Archives: 19 May, 2011, 09:27, CEST+1

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Madrid Live

As we have reported since the start of the Spanish protests, austerity sucks. If this starts rocking, dynamic times ahead. Check out the constant flow of comments to the right, this is BIG. Below live feed from Madrid.

Wax on, wax off, risk on risk off, bail out off, bail out on

Last news before the close from Reuters;

Judge grants bail to Strauss-Kahn in sex assault case.

Special congratulations to the investors who bought LnikedIn at +120, before all the shares vanished from Earth. The stock closed at 94, down 22% from the top. All this action accompanied by total lack of volume. Today was one of the lowest volumes days of the year.

Match your debt

Three years ago, investors received a brutal lesson in why it can be risky for banks or other financial institutions to fund long-term holdings with short-term debt. But could it be time for investors to relearn that concept now in relation to sovereign debt? (FT)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39220a04-8214-11e0-a063-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1Mp83QxjM

chart, dshort

BREAKING NEWS:Prosecutor says indictment has been filed against Strauss-Kahn, opposes bail

…and we can read another interesting piece on that same Reuters page.

With Europe pushing hard to keep the IMF leadership in the wake of Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s resignation after his arrest for attempted rape, Lagarde has emerged as Europe’s strongest candidate to fend off the claim of emerging economies.

Her fluent English and more than two decades of practicing law in Chicago enhance her transatlantic appeal.

However, her prospects could be undermined by a legal row, unlikely to be resolved before June at the earliest, over her decision to settle a dispute between the state and businessman Bernard Tapie, a personal friend of President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Lagarde denies any misconduct, and there is no suggestion of personal profit. But legal trouble could delay her appointment or even make her unacceptable to the IMF as it tries to polish its image after Strauss-Kahn’s dramatic fall from grace.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-strausskahn-imf-lagarde-idUSTRE74I3U820110519What’s up with the Europeans?

What’s up with these Europeans? Looks like Greece will be waiting with empty hands for some longer.

Obama on MENA

Some news that actually mean something, for all non LinkedIn newly rich ones. Obama is holding a rather important speech about MENA today. For those not captured by the no volume melt up stock, this is worth reading. From WSJ;

I want to thank Hillary Clinton, who has traveled so much these last six months that she is approaching a new landmark – one million frequent flyer miles. I count on Hillary every day, and I believe that she will go down as of the finest Secretaries of State in our nation’s history.

The State Department is a fitting venue to mark a new chapter in American diplomacy. For six months, we have witnessed an extraordinary change take place in the Middle East and North Africa. Square by square; town by town; country by country; the people have risen up to demand their basic human rights. Two leaders have stepped aside. More may follow. And though these countries may be a great distance from our shores, we know that our own future is bound to this region by the forces of economics and security; history and faith.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/20/world/middleeast/20prexy-text.html?_r=1

Irrational Exuberance part 3, already….

LinkedIn just sniffed 120 Usd. Deja Vu grande style. Welcome to the real bonanza, where we price stock at + 1000 P/E, but who cares about those old fashion P/E ratios, now it is all about social networking. Zynga next? Below, link so you can follow some intraday action if you don’t have your own Reuters terminal.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lnkd

Some more Spain Pain

For the European close. Some pictures from Spain. Barcelona, Granada, and outside the Spanish Embassy in London. None of the crowd members seem long LinkedIn shares. Keep a close eye on this development, it could start something major in Europa very soon.

Some of today’s news

Another day, with more great news;

  • Philly Fed at 3,9, from April 18,5 and March 43.4 levels.
  • Existing home sales declined 0,8% mom in April.
  • Leading Economic indicator fell 0,3% mom, (exp increase 0,1%)
  • IPO bonanza, LinkedIn traded at 90 for a brief moment. That is app P/E 1000.
  • Spain is on fire, austerity kicking in
  • Japan in recession

Below some risk off cintraday charts, oil, audjpy and Nasdaq. Nice timing LinkedIn.

Irrational Exuberance part 2

Great, we are back to where it all started. Social networking bonanza is here, but don’t forget, this time is different. These are great companies, that make great products, that everybody will buy, or? Trading in LinkedIn is delayed due to huge orders and matching is now more than 30 minutes delayed, but that is not a bubble. We will all be buying virtual pink cows in the future. LinkedIn IPO price was raised by 30% some hours ago, and is now trading at another 100% higher. The company will most probably loose money in 2011, or? Bring out those 1800-Flowers.com shares, the bull is back.

Welcome to Irrational Exuberance part 2 and P/E 1000. Great intraday trade by the way from LinkedIn.

When to Exit?

The top hedge fund in the world is looking to exit some positions near term. Fed officials agree on exiting, but they don’t know when to press the button. Timing will be essential. We are looking forward to see how big the bids actually are.

Federal Reserve policy makers neared agreement on the sequence of tools they will use to withdraw record monetary stimulus, with little accord on when to start.

The central bank should first end its policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing securities and later raise interest rates and sell assets, majorities of policy makers said at their April 26-27 meeting, according to minutes released yesterday. The caveat: Talks about the exit strategy don’t mean that tightening “would necessarily begin soon,” the report said.

It’s almost like planning for retirement but not knowing when you’re going to retire,” said Keith Hembre, a former Fed researcher who’s now chief economist and investment strategist in Minneapolis at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees about $205 billion. (Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-19/fed-nears-agreement-on-how-to-exit-stimulus-with-timing-unclear.html

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