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Daily Archives: 3 May, 2011, 09:51, CEST+1

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Circus Clowns And Sideshow Freaks

“In my worst nightmares, when the lights are swallowed by the smog of some nefarious gloom and the air itself becomes a stale sarcophagus into which I am entombed, and the grim hands of putrefied fate sink their wretched grip into the thick of my neck and all seems irrevocably lost, I merely recall that soon I will awaken to the horror of a terminal America infested by career criminals and certifiable morons, and suddenly, my off color dreams don’t seem so bad. Ultimately, there is nothing worse to me than a public majority that takes everything they hear from the mouths of political warlocks at face value. Even the fear of death is truly a pittance compared to the threat of being enveloped by a stampeding herd of frightened, stupid, human cattle.” Courtesy Brandon Smith.

Full article,

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/115-circus-clowns-and-sideshow-freaks

Stratfor on Al Qaeda

Following the 9/11, attacks, the United States launched an offensive against the global jihadist movement and its vanguard, al Qaeda. This offensive sought to apply the full force of all five of the levers of counterterrorism power (intelligence, military might, diplomacy, law enforcement and financial sanctions) against the movement. As pressure was being applied to the main al Qaeda group, regional or national militant groups in places like Iraq, the Sinai, Indonesia, Algeria and Somalia embraced the ideology of jihadism and sought to use al Qaeda’s brand name as a way to attract recruits and funding to their organizations. As the core al Qaeda group (what we refer to as al Qaeda prime) was suffering losses including its sanctuary and infrastructure in in Afghanistan, many operational leaders and a great deal financial support, these regional affiliates or franchises came to eclipse al Qaeda prime as the primary military threat emanating from the global jihadist movement. These franchises have generally followed a pattern where they rise up, conduct some spectacular attacks, and then get struck down. We have seen this pattern in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and the Sinai Peninsula, and now it is seemingly being replicated in Iraq and Algeria, where the al Qaeda franchises the Islamic State of Iraq and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb appear to be on the ropes. In some places, such as Egypt and Libya, these franchises have not been able to become operationally effective. (Stratfor)

PORTUGAL PM SAYS REACHES AGREEMENT WITH EU/IMF ON BAILOUT LOAN

Some more colour on this;

An EU/IMF bailout for Portugal will reach 78 billion euros ($116 billion) for three years, an official source close to the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday.

Caretaker Prime Minister Jose Socrates said the government agreed on a memorandum of understanding with the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, but did not provdie the amount of the rescue loans. The deal has to be endorsed by the main opposition parties. (Reuters)

Silver and oil coming off-Inflection Point?

There goes Silver. 42 level broken, now let’s see our short term target 40.

There goes oil

We have been arguing during past days, that too many desperate alpha chasing hedge funds have entered into well too crowded Silver (and oil) longs. When we see Silver collapsing in such a way, we are confident these “long the Silver top” funds will start offloading their equities longs, that still have nice gains.

SPX vs Vix

Last time Vix was trading at these levels, market was somewhat lower….

Another good old days trading

What is wrong? We have not seen this in a while, so let us enjoy it while it lasts.

SPX down, NDX down, Vix up…..

The United States just sued Deutsche Bank AG

Here we go….

The United States sued Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), accusing the German bank and its MortgageIT Inc unit of repeatedly lying to be included in a federal program to select mortgages to be insured by the government.

In a civil complaint filed in the U.S. district court in Manhattan, the government said that defendants recklessly chose mortgages that violated program rules “in blatant disregard” of whether borrowers could make mortgage payments.

Deutsche Bank and MortgageIT profited from the resale of the mortgages, even as thousands of U.S. homeowners faced default and eviction, the complaint said.

The government said it has paid out hundreds of millions of dollars of insurance claims, and expects to pay out hundreds of millions more. Its seeks damages and penalties for violations of the federal False Claims Act.

Deutsche Bank did not immediately return a call seeking a comment. (Reuters)

Bubble winners-400 people

As thetrader has been writing extensively about during the past months, the increasing polarization of the Us society is becoming a problem long term. Just imagine, 15% of the population eat of foodstamps, while 400 persons account for 10% of ALL Capital gains tax! It doesn’t get more Capitalistic. For further insight into  inequalities within the American society, read the book by Emanuel Todd. Below some thoughts from Krugman,

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/who-benefits-from-bubbles/

Is SLV about to blow?

“As of this writing there are 364 million shares of SLV outstanding.  In the past five trading days (April 25 – 29) more than 755 million shares have been traded, and get this, more than 10 million ounces of silver were taken from the trust between the 26th and the 28th, taking available shares with them.”

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/is-the-slv-is-wired-to-blow/

Below, Silver action today, many longs puking, 42 is the first support, then let’s see.

Must read report from PIMCO

Another great piece from Bill Gross at PIMCO. He is getting rather aggressive on his view. Let’s see what Geithner thinks about this Titanic cruiser?
“Bond – and stock – investors have been sailing on the “Good Ship Lollipop” for over 30 years following the Volcker Revolution and the return of high real interest rates to investment markets. Now, however, with governments attempting to impose financial repression, bond investors should revolt. Their ship should more likely be christened the “USS Caine” in memory of a silver screen mutiny that, while traumatic, eventually returned all sailors safely to port. PIMCO advocates not so much a mutiny but a renewed vigilance on this new ship, stressing bond market “safe spread” alternatives available globally, including developing/emerging market debt at higher yields denominated in non-dollar currencies. Many of these countries have more pristine balance sheets and higher real interest rates than those currently being imposed in some developed markets subject to current and future “repression.” If AAA quality is your requirement, then Canadian or Australian bonds may also fit your horizon. Join us, along with Carmen Reinhart, in shouting “constant bearing/decreasing range!” The Treasury market is on a collision course with financial repression and it is time to adjust your rudder to starboard to get home safely.” (PIMCO)
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