Quick check av var Usa index befinner sig. Spx vilar på 50 dagars glidande. Stängning under 1300 framöver kommer röra om i grytan och locka fram säljare.

Nasdaq handlas under 50 dagars. Som vi skrivt tidigare gillar vi inte Nasdaqs trötta sentiment, även om index outperformar just idag, Apple +1% idag.

Vix index är åter under 17. Fear factor är i princip borta. Som sagt, köp vol när ingen  vill ha vol, inte när du måste.

Största “budget cut” i historien fick vi lära oss i fredags, med minuter kvar till att regeringen skulle stängas ner. Politiker kan just politik, men vad gömmer sig bakom dessa siffror. Absoluta tal är som bekant irrelevanta fakta. Vad är stort, hur långt är ett snöre etc är alla irrelevanta mått. Saker och ting måste ställas i relation till andra fakta. Nedan lite tankar från Washington Post.

“For instance, during World War II, the federal budget soared from $9.4 billion in 1940 to nearly $93 billion in 1945. Talk about an expansion of government! But then in 1946, the budget was cut to $55 billion. That’s a cut of $37 billion, technically less than the $38.5 billion in cuts reached last week. But it’s also a cut of 40 percent, which means it is 40 times larger than the deal that is routinely described as historic.

The budget kept falling for a number of years after World War II. It dropped to $34 billion in 1947, a cut of 38 percent. Then the next year it fell to just under $30 billion, a cut of 14 percent.  (There were also cuts of 66 percent, 20 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in the three years after the end of World War I.)

Raw dollars, of course, don’t tell the whole story either. Between 1954 and 1955, government spending fell from $70.9 billion to $68.4 billion. That may not sound like much but it’s still a decline of 3.5 percent, or three times more than this deal. But when the dollars are translated to constant dollars (fiscal 2005, the standard used in the White House budget), the cuts swell to $55 billion, which would be a cut of 9 percent. By either standard, that’s much larger than the current agreement.

You can also measure the budget as a percentage of the national economy, known as gross domestic product. The budget deal appears to be a cut of about 0.25 percent of the estimated GDP this year. We count 24 years since 1940 when government spending as a share of the economy fell by that amount or more, though of course this figure depends not only on cutting spending but whether the economy is growing.” (WP)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/biggest-cuts-in-us-history-well-no/2011/04/12/AFhTwwSD_blog.html?hpid=z1

Snart har kineserna tagit över Copa Cabana.

“Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed more than 20 bilateral agreements — along with 13 agreements between Chinese and Brazilian companies — during Rousseff’s April 12 visit to Beijing. The visit comes on the heels of a rapid change in Brazil’s trade patterns. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, China’s interest in Brazilian natural resource exports rose dramatically. Chinese imports from Brazil jumped from $8.4 billion in 2006 to $30.8 billion in 2010, mostly consisting of iron ore, soybeans and crude oil. Soaring Chinese interest coincided with a decline in Brazilian exports to the United States and Argentina, countries that had generally sought higher value-added products from Brazil. As a result, China has become Brazil’s largest trading partner and has caused a significant shift in Brazilian exports toward natural resources and away from manufactured goods.” (Stratfor)

Politik på hög nivå. Obamas mål känns bitvis som att lyssna till Spaniens Zapatero. Bara för att de säger saker, kommer de inte hända. Vi önskar Obama lycka till, och undrar hur underskottet om 12 år kommer se ut, knappast mindre än dagens, och då är ju 4 trillioner en droppe i havet?

“President Barack Obama on Wednesday set a goal of cutting the U.S. budget deficit by $4 trillion, plunging into the debate over the nation’s fiscal woes after accusations he has failed to lead on the issue.

Obama, facing a 2012 re-election vote in which the nation’s debt and deficit are major worries for Americans, promised in a speech in Washington to put the country on a gradually improving fiscal path.

He set a time-frame of 12 years or less to reach the goal of $4 trillion in deficit reduction and called for talks with Democratic and Republican lawmakers to hammer out a detailed blueprint.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/us-usa-budget-idUSTRE7321P120110413

För hela Obama plan se,

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/04/13/fact-sheet-presidents-framework-shared-prosperity-and-shared-fiscal-resp

Treasaury sålde under kvällen en till tranche a 21 miljarder Usd med ca löptid på10 år. Räntan var i princip densamma som förra gången. Det var dock en relativt låg bid to cover ratio i dagens auction. Med tanke på dagens 21 och gårdagens 32 miljarder, så är vi över debt ceiling väldigt snart. Obamas kommande huvudvärk är en höjning av taket asap.

  Reuters rapporterar att Kina funderar på att snitta ner sig och investera ytterligare 13 miljarder Usd. Cajas sägs behöva endast 15 miljarder Usd enligt “officiella” källor. Med tanke på den mentalitet som råder i Spanien, hellre gå i konkurs än skriva ner värdet eller rea ut något, så anser vi siffran vara rent fiktivt värde som saknar all statistsk signifikans. Hela den spanska fastighetssektorn är genomrutten, och komemr kräva vidare stora nedskrivningar, men dessa skjuter man på, då balansräknnigarna skulle bli svarta hål. Spanien har 1 miljon tomma bostäder, men Kina har å andra sidan 64 miljoner tomma bostäder, så kineserna ser detta som ett mindre hot om den förväntade återhämtningen för fastigheter i Spanien. Vi önskar kineserna Buen Suerte. Nedan Reuters;

* Sovereign wealth fund may invest $9 bln – Spanish source

* Says Chinese private investors mull $4 bln investment

* Spanish PM Zapatero visiting China

* Savings banks may need 100 bln euros of extra funds in all

“Chinese investors including the country’s sovereign wealth fund may inject $13 billion into Spanish banks, a government source said on Wednesday after Spain’s premier met financial authorities in Beijing.

Concerns about delays in recapitalising Spain’s ailing savings banks — heavily exposed to bad loans from a burst property bubble — have overshadowed the euro zone state’s efforts to convince markets it will not need a bailout.

According to official estimates the savings banks — which are known as cajas and hold about half the deposits in Spain’s financial system — need about 15 billion euros in fresh funding to meet strict new financial targets.

But private estimates go eight times higher than that when taking into account future losses from real estate writedowns.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/13/spain-china-idUSLDE73C1FT20110413

På temat inverterad panik. Förra gången SPX handlades på dessa nivåer var VIX index ca 19, dvs knappt 15% högre. VIX öppnade dessutom ännu lägre idag, men handlas upp lite initialt. Temat med en “broken volatility” fortsätter. Kvantarnas modeller kommer snart lysa att volatilitet ska säljas ner, för marknaden rör sig knappt intraday. Detta riskerar explodera i ansiktet på alla volsäljare på dessa nivåer. Liksom Buffets stjärnor, är folk gripna av fear att missa uppgången, och fear att blöda theta på dessa volnivåer.

Verkar som att några bolag får problem i och med Japan situationen…..

http://www.affarsvarlden.se/hem/it_telekom/article3153392.ece

Vad hände med MENA? Det mest spännande för stunden är att Mubarak verkar ha fått hjärtattack, men pyr oroligheterna under ytan igen? Vad vi slogs av under förra månadens oroligheter, var avsaknaden av protester mot Israel. Anti Zionismen har ju varit närvarande i Arabvärlden, även innan grönskashandlaren i Tunisien satte eld på sig själv. Det har i princip varit helt dött kring Israel. Den andra observationen var avsaknaden av ordet Hamas under den “oroliga” perioden. Inga resningar mot Israel hördes över huvudtaget, märkligt. Däremot kan Iran vara på gång igen, nedan från Reuters;

 BEIRUT, Lebanon,  April 13 (UPI) — Hezbollah and Iranian
Revolutionary Guard operatives are planning attacks on western
targets in the coming days, a Lebanese report said.
     The report was based on information gathered by western
intelligence agencies monitoring the “recent abnormal movements
of cadres suspected of belonging to Hezbollah or the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard,” the Beirut Observer Web site said
Tuesday.
     The report said the attacks are meant to divert global
attention from indictments the international United Nations
tribunal is expected to serve in the investigation of the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
     The indictments will most likely name “leadership cadres
in the party [Hezbollah],” the site said.
     The report comes on the eve of the country’s 36th
anniversary of the 1975-90 Civil War, and amid deep divisions
in the country’s political leadership, a paralysed cabinet and
mounting concern about events in the Arab world that threaten
Lebanon’s security and stability, The Lebanese newspaper The
Daily Star said Wednesday.
     Lebanon is under threat of new sectarian strife over the
pending tribunal indictments and a “more explosive issue that
threatens to destabilize the country is Hezbollah’s arsenal,”
the newspaper said noting the issue is currently the target of
a fierce verbal campaign by caretaker Prime Minister Saad
Hariri and his allies in the March 14 coalition.
     The tribunal and Hezbollah’s weapons have sharply divided
the country into two rival camps — the March 8 camp led by
Hezbollah and the March 14 camp led by Hariri, the paper said

Mean reversion. Vi ser hur dyrt det kan bli att hamna fel i fastighetssvängen (rensat för inflationen). Frågan är om Shillers “prediction” kommer infrias, på sikt?