Usas regering hotas av en stängning from fredag. Det känns dock tryggt att POMOs köpen kan fortsätta med full kraft och allt är som vanligt. Fed har bestämt sig trycka aktier upp i himlen, oavsett jordbävningar, Portugal, skenande råvaror eller MENA. Deras benchmark är SPX, och den får inte gå ner.

“Since it doesn’t rely on Congressional funds, the U.S. central bank would remain open for business as usual, with normal staffing levels. The Fed would therefore be able to continue with its day-to-day operations, such as buying some $7.0 billion U.S. Treasurys on Monday, April 11. The government bond purchases, due to run until June, are part of the Fed’s latest effort to stimulate the economy.” (WSJ)

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/06/fed-would-stay-open-amid-government-shutdown/?mod=e2tw

Det börjar höjas röster angående Usas riktiga problem, dvs alla de bby boomers som kommer behöva medicare, medicaid etc..

“The two parties are having a heated debate over the Republican plan to slice $61 billion off Uncle Sam’s projected $3.6 trillion budget. If the Republicans get their way, the deficit will fall from 9.5 percent of gross domestic product to 9.1 percent. If they don’t, they’ll probably shut the government for a couple of days. Then they’ll compromise on, say, a $40 billion budget cut, having proved they gave it their best shot.

Arguing over lowering our deficit by just 0.4 percent of GDP when we need to run massive surpluses to deal with the baby boomers’ impending retirement is, pick your metaphor — rearranging the Titanic’s furniture, Nero’s fiddling, Custer’s Last Stand.” (Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-05/u-s-fiscal-crisis-in-spitting-distance-commentary-by-laurence-kotlikoff.html

http://thepurplehealthplan.org/

Portugal ansöker om en bail out av Europa. Vi har i över en månad hävdad att Portugal måste bailas ut. Landets skenande räntekostnader fick landet att söka “hjälp”. Nu är det oficiellt, Portugal är bankrutt, oavsett hur bra ekonomin enligt propagandan på CNBC beskrivits. Adios Portugal, bienvenido Espana, den stora elefanten….Allt är vältimat med morgondagens ECB höjning.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/portugal-seeks-eu-bailout-after-yields-surge.html

Oljan, silver och guld fortsätter upp idag. Efter att folk numera borde inse Saudiarabiens falska löften ser vi fram emot att silver går över 40 och oljan testar gamla höga. Bernanke spelar hard ball. Hans övertro på “mean reversion” gällande råvaropriser etc, kan få stora konsekvenser för inflationen och ekonomin. Vi får inte glömma att Bernanke är en duktig “scholar” och säkerligen som många andra akademiker, har en väldig övertro till modeller och sannolikheter. Plan B saknas för ett vidare skenande oljepris.

Analysts and investors have said the government will likely need to step in to save the utility with a bail-out or full-blown nationalisation, although uncertainty remains about the government’s intention for the company.

TEPCO has yet to determine the extent of the damage from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that knocked out a fifth of its power-producing capacity. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch has estimated TEPCO could face compensation claims of more than $130 billion if the crisis drags on.

TEPCO said on Tuesday that it was considering early compensation payments to victims of the disaster. (Reuters)

Som vi skrivit om sen katastrofen, TEPCO kommer tas över av regeringen, frågan är hur och vem som städar upp all skit?

För de som glömt bort varför marknaden går upp, och vad som händer efter July. (Courtesey calculatedrisk).

• “Sizable increases in prices of crude oil and other commodities pushed up headline inflation, but measures of  underlying inflation were subdued and longer-run inflation expectations remained stable.”
• “The labor market continued to show signs of firming. Private nonfarm payroll employment rose noticeably in February after a small increase in January, with the swing in hiring likely magnified by widespread snowstorms, which may have held down the employment figure for January. Initial claims for unemployment insurance trended lower through early March,  and surveys of hiring plans had improved this year. The unemployment rate dropped markedly in January after a similar decrease in the preceding month, then ticked down to 8.9 percent in February; the labor force participation rate was roughly flat in January and February.”
• “The pace of economic activity appeared to have been a little slower around the turn of the year than the staff had anticipated at the time of the January FOMC meeting, and the near-term forecast for growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down modestly. However, the outlook for economic activity over the medium term was broadly similar to the projection prepared for the January FOMC meeting. Crude oil prices had risen sharply and federal fiscal policy seemed likely to be marginally more restrictive than the staff had judged in January, but these negative factors were counterbalanced by higher household net worth and a slightly lower foreign exchange value of the dollar. As a result, as in the January forecast, real GDP was expected to rise at a moderate pace over 2011 and 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy, increasing credit availability, and greater household and business confidence.”
• “As its earlier program of agency MBS purchases drew to a close, the Federal Reserve tapered its purchases during the first quarter of 2010 in order to avoid disruptions in the market for those securities. However, the Manager indicated that the greater depth and liquidity of the Treasury securities market suggested that it would not be necessary to taper purchases in this market. not be necessary to taper purchases in this market. The Manager noted that market participants appeared to have reached the same conclusion, as they generally did not seem to expect the Federal  Reserve to taper its purchases of Treasury securities. In light of the Manager’s report, almost all meeting participants indicated that they saw no need to taper the pace of the Committee’s purchases of Treasury securities when its current program of asset purchases approaches its end.”
• “Broad U.S. stock price indexes were about unchanged, on net, over the intermeeting period. Option-implied volatility on the S&P 500 index rose sharply in mid-February in response to events in the MENA region and remained somewhat elevated thereafter..”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcminutes20110315.pdf