Försäkringar efter tsunamin

Nedan JPMorgans kortfattade slutsatser om försäkringssituationen i Japan. En sak är säker, ingen vet vad som kommer hända, men de utländska försäkringsbolagen verkar inte ligga lika pyrt till som de inhemska bolagen.

Implications for Global Insurance Industry

It appears to us that all the losses in Japan on residential houses are likely to remain within the country, given the nature of their coverage and the lack of use of external reinsurance. Japanese premiums account for about 6% of the insurance market as well, so the spillover impact on global insurance markets and capital from won’t be inconsequential but will likely be limited. Also, given the limited coverage actually provided to households, it appears individuals  (even those with insurance) will bare a substantial proportion of the costs.

In terms of commercial coverage, it appears from our exploration of industry publications that coverage is limited. As such, we conclude that two effects are likely to be seen: (a) some losses will hit balance sheets of global reinsurance companies, and (b) the losses, in our view, are unlikely to be large enough to cause an upturn in the premium rate cycle.

Broader Market Implications

There is likely to be liquidation of some funds by the JER and insurers in Japan to fund the earthquake. They probably would have invested some of their funds outside of Japan to avoid the negative correlation risk between their liabilities (Japan Earthquake) and their assets.

There also may be a further issuance of bonds by the Japanese government to fund their liabilities.

Companies in Japan and individuals in Japan may be bearing a significant proportion of the financial costs of the events (not to mention the human costs).